According to a Global Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC), British Columbia's exports are forecast to grow 13 per cent in 2012, the highest rate of growth among all provinces.
"Continued strong demand from China and rapidly-growing Asian economies will benefit British Columbia's export sector, which will expand at double-digit pace again in 2012," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist for EDC. "Exports to Asia now represent over 40% of the province's exports, and are expanding in excess of 25% this year."
Higher shipments of coal, copper and wood products will spur the province's three main export industries. Lumber shipments will benefit from a reawakening of U.S. homebuilding. British Columbia's forestry exports are forecast to grow by an impressive 26 per cent in 2012.
The province's international exports are led by three key industries: forestry, accounting for 20 per cent of the province's total exports, energy, accounting for 20 per cent; and industrial goods, accounting for 16 per cent.
The EDC forecast predicts that Alberta's international exports will grow by another 2 per cent in 2012 following 2011's estimated 18 per cent surge
"While Alberta counts on crude oil and natural gas for the bulk of its exports, other industries will generate all of the growth in international sales during 2012," said Mr. Hall. "Next year, the province's export growth will be buoyed by the forestry and industrial goods sectors as declining prices put downward pressure on Alberta's oil exports."
The province's international export picture is led by three key sectors: energy, accounting for 72 per cent of the province's total exports, industrial goods, accounting for 11 per cent, and agri-food, accounting for 8.4 per cent.
"After a hefty 21 per cent increase in energy exports in 2011, performance will plateau in 2012 as slight gains in natural gas and electricity offset price declines for oil and coal." A critical element of this forecast is EDC's outlook for world oil prices, with the cost of WTI crude expected to fall from an average of USD 94/bbl in 2011 to USD 85/bbl in 2012.